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Progresul Spartac vs CSA Steaua Bucureşti — Liga II 2018

Progresul Spartac
Progresul Spartac
FT
1 – 6
HT: 1 – 3
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
11/25/2023Liga IILiga II · Round 14Clinceni - Arena 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Progresul Spartac21%
×Draw23%
CSA Steaua Bucureşti56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Progresul Spartac
1.04
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
1.86

CSA Steaua Bucureşti creates 79% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 72 away

creates per match

Progresul Spartac
0.92
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
1.46

allows per match

Progresul Spartac
2.27
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
1.17

finishing

Progresul Spartac+0.00on par
CSA Steaua Bucureşti+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Progresul Spartac ↓

CSA Steaua Bucureşti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Progresul Spartac or draw
44%
Progresul Spartac or CSA Steaua Bucureşti
77%
Draw or CSA Steaua Bucureşti
79%

Winning margin

Progresul Spartac wins by 2+
8%
CSA Steaua Bucureşti wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Progresul Spartac 1+ goals
65%
Progresul Spartac 2+ goals
28%
Progresul Spartac 3+ goals
9%
CSA Steaua Bucureşti 1+ goals
84%
CSA Steaua Bucureşti 2+ goals
55%
CSA Steaua Bucureşti 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Progresul Spartac (draw refunded)
27%
CSA Steaua Bucureşti (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Progresul Spartac at home — creates 0.92, concedes 2.27 · 26 matches

CSA Steaua Bucureşti away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.17 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Progresul Spartac attack 0.92 + CSA Steaua Bucureşti defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.04

CSA Steaua Bucureşti attack 1.46 + Progresul Spartac defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Progresul Spartac scores more
21%
level
23%
CSA Steaua Bucureşti scores more
56%

CSA Steaua Bucureşti at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "CSA Steaua Bucureşti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Progresul Spartac vs CSA Steaua Bucureşti

CSA Steaua Bucureşti beat Progresul Spartac 6-1 in Liga II on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Clinceni - Arena 1 in Clinceni.