Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

CSA Steaua Bucureşti vs Progresul Spartac — Liga II 2018

CSA Steaua Bucureşti
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Progresul Spartac
Progresul Spartac
4/13/2024Liga IILiga II · Relegation Round - 3Stadionul Steaua

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

CSA Steaua Bucureşti55%
×Draw24%
Progresul Spartac21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSA Steaua Bucureşti
1.71
Progresul Spartac
0.95

CSA Steaua Bucureşti creates 80% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 25 away

creates per match

CSA Steaua Bucureşti
1.75
Progresul Spartac
0.92

allows per match

CSA Steaua Bucureşti
0.97
Progresul Spartac
1.68

finishing

CSA Steaua Bucureşti+0.00on par
Progresul Spartac+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSA Steaua Bucureşti ↓

Progresul Spartac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

CSA Steaua Bucureşti or draw
79%
CSA Steaua Bucureşti or Progresul Spartac
76%
Draw or Progresul Spartac
45%

Winning margin

CSA Steaua Bucureşti wins by 2+
30%
Progresul Spartac wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

CSA Steaua Bucureşti 1+ goals
82%
CSA Steaua Bucureşti 2+ goals
51%
CSA Steaua Bucureşti 3+ goals
24%
Progresul Spartac 1+ goals
61%
Progresul Spartac 2+ goals
25%
Progresul Spartac 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

CSA Steaua Bucureşti (draw refunded)
73%
Progresul Spartac (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSA Steaua Bucureşti at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.97 · 71 matches

Progresul Spartac away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.68 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSA Steaua Bucureşti attack 1.75 + Progresul Spartac defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.71

Progresul Spartac attack 0.92 + CSA Steaua Bucureşti defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

CSA Steaua Bucureşti scores more
55%
level
24%
Progresul Spartac scores more
21%

CSA Steaua Bucureşti at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "CSA Steaua Bucureşti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CSA Steaua Bucureşti 4 – 1 Progresul Spartac

CSA Steaua Bucureşti beat Progresul Spartac 4-1 in Liga II on April 13, 2024.

The match was played at Stadionul Steaua in București.