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Progresul Fundulea vs LPS HD Clinceni — Liga III - Serie 3 2020

Progresul Fundulea
Progresul Fundulea
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
LPS HD Clinceni
LPS HD Clinceni
9/30/2023Liga III - Serie 3Liga III - Serie 3 · Group 3 - 6Complex Municipal Dunărea Teren 1 Ion Comșa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Progresul Fundulea55%
×Draw21%
LPS HD Clinceni23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Progresul Fundulea
2.04
LPS HD Clinceni
1.25

Progresul Fundulea creates 63% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 14 away

creates per match

Progresul Fundulea
1.57
LPS HD Clinceni
1.43

allows per match

Progresul Fundulea
1.07
LPS HD Clinceni
2.50

finishing

Progresul Fundulea+0.00on par
LPS HD Clinceni+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Progresul Fundulea ↓

LPS HD Clinceni →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Progresul Fundulea or draw
77%
Progresul Fundulea or LPS HD Clinceni
79%
Draw or LPS HD Clinceni
45%

Winning margin

Progresul Fundulea wins by 2+
33%
LPS HD Clinceni wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Progresul Fundulea 1+ goals
87%
Progresul Fundulea 2+ goals
60%
Progresul Fundulea 3+ goals
33%
LPS HD Clinceni 1+ goals
71%
LPS HD Clinceni 2+ goals
36%
LPS HD Clinceni 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Progresul Fundulea (draw refunded)
71%
LPS HD Clinceni (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Progresul Fundulea at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.07 · 42 matches

LPS HD Clinceni away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.50 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Progresul Fundulea attack 1.57 + LPS HD Clinceni defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.04

LPS HD Clinceni attack 1.43 + Progresul Fundulea defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Progresul Fundulea scores more
55%
level
21%
LPS HD Clinceni scores more
23%

Progresul Fundulea at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Progresul Fundulea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Progresul Fundulea vs LPS HD Clinceni

LPS HD Clinceni beat Progresul Fundulea 2-0 in Liga III - Serie 3 on September 30, 2023.

The match was played at Complex Municipal Dunărea Teren 1 Ion Comșa in Călăraşi.