LPS HD Clinceni 3–0 Progresul Fundulea

LPS HD Clinceni

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Progresul Fundulea

12/2/2023

Liga III - Serie 3 · Group 3 - 15Clinceni - Arena 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

LPS HD Clinceni52%

×Draw21%

Progresul Fundulea27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LPS HD ClinceniExpected goals in this matchProgresul Fundulea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.50

LPS HD Clinceni

2.13

Progresul Fundulea

1.50

LPS HD Clinceni creates 42% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 42 away

2.54

creates per match

1.31

1.69

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

LPS HD Clinceni

2.54

Progresul Fundulea

1.31

allows per match

LPS HD Clinceni

1.69

Progresul Fundulea

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

LPS HD Clinceni+0.00on par

Progresul Fundulea+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LPS HD Clinceni ↓

Progresul Fundulea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

LPS HD Clinceni or draw

73%

LPS HD Clinceni or Progresul Fundulea

79%

Draw or Progresul Fundulea

48%

Winning margin

LPS HD Clinceni wins by 2+

31%

Progresul Fundulea wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

LPS HD Clinceni 1+ goals

88%

LPS HD Clinceni 2+ goals

63%

LPS HD Clinceni 3+ goals

35%

Progresul Fundulea 1+ goals

78%

Progresul Fundulea 2+ goals

44%

Progresul Fundulea 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

LPS HD Clinceni (draw refunded)

66%

Progresul Fundulea (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LPS HD Clinceni at home — creates 2.54, concedes 1.69 · 13 matches

Progresul Fundulea away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.71 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LPS HD Clinceni attack 2.54 + Progresul Fundulea defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.13

Progresul Fundulea attack 1.31 + LPS HD Clinceni defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

LPS HD Clinceni scores more

52%

level

21%

Progresul Fundulea scores more

27%

LPS HD Clinceni at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "LPS HD Clinceni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff