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Progresul Fundulea vs Dunarea Calarasi — Liga III - Serie 3 2020

Progresul Fundulea
Progresul Fundulea
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Dunarea Calarasi
Dunarea Calarasi
5/10/2025Liga III - Serie 3Liga III - Serie 3 · Group 3 - 2nd Phase - 8Stadionul Orășenesc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Progresul Fundulea44%
×Draw25%
Dunarea Calarasi31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Progresul Fundulea
1.52
Dunarea Calarasi
1.23

Progresul Fundulea creates 24% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 52 away

creates per match

Progresul Fundulea
1.57
Dunarea Calarasi
1.38

allows per match

Progresul Fundulea
1.07
Dunarea Calarasi
1.48

finishing

Progresul Fundulea+0.00on par
Dunarea Calarasi+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Progresul Fundulea ↓

Dunarea Calarasi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Progresul Fundulea or draw
69%
Progresul Fundulea or Dunarea Calarasi
75%
Draw or Dunarea Calarasi
56%

Winning margin

Progresul Fundulea wins by 2+
22%
Dunarea Calarasi wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Progresul Fundulea 1+ goals
78%
Progresul Fundulea 2+ goals
45%
Progresul Fundulea 3+ goals
20%
Dunarea Calarasi 1+ goals
71%
Dunarea Calarasi 2+ goals
35%
Dunarea Calarasi 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Progresul Fundulea (draw refunded)
59%
Dunarea Calarasi (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Progresul Fundulea at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.07 · 42 matches

Dunarea Calarasi away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.48 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Progresul Fundulea attack 1.57 + Dunarea Calarasi defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.52

Dunarea Calarasi attack 1.38 + Progresul Fundulea defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Progresul Fundulea scores more
44%
level
25%
Dunarea Calarasi scores more
31%

Progresul Fundulea at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Progresul Fundulea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Progresul Fundulea vs Dunarea Calarasi

Progresul Fundulea and Dunarea Calarasi drew 1-1 in Liga III - Serie 3 on May 10, 2025.

The match was played at Stadionul Orășenesc in Fundulea.