Dunarea Calarasi 1–1 Progresul Fundulea

Dunarea Calarasi

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Progresul Fundulea

11/1/2025

Liga III - Serie 3 · Group 3 - 11Stadionul Ion Comsa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Dunarea Calarasi52%

×Draw23%

Progresul Fundulea25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dunarea CalarasiExpected goals in this matchProgresul Fundulea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.19

Dunarea Calarasi

1.80

Progresul Fundulea

1.19

Dunarea Calarasi creates 51% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 42 away

1.90

creates per match

1.31

1.06

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Dunarea Calarasi

1.90

Progresul Fundulea

1.31

allows per match

Dunarea Calarasi

1.06

Progresul Fundulea

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dunarea Calarasi+0.00on par

Progresul Fundulea+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunarea Calarasi ↓

Progresul Fundulea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Dunarea Calarasi or draw

75%

Dunarea Calarasi or Progresul Fundulea

77%

Draw or Progresul Fundulea

48%

Winning margin

Dunarea Calarasi wins by 2+

29%

Progresul Fundulea wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Dunarea Calarasi 1+ goals

83%

Dunarea Calarasi 2+ goals

54%

Dunarea Calarasi 3+ goals

27%

Progresul Fundulea 1+ goals

70%

Progresul Fundulea 2+ goals

33%

Progresul Fundulea 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Dunarea Calarasi (draw refunded)

67%

Progresul Fundulea (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunarea Calarasi at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.06 · 52 matches

Progresul Fundulea away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.71 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunarea Calarasi attack 1.90 + Progresul Fundulea defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.80

Progresul Fundulea attack 1.31 + Dunarea Calarasi defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Dunarea Calarasi scores more

52%

level

23%

Progresul Fundulea scores more

25%

Dunarea Calarasi at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Dunarea Calarasi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff