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Progresul Fundulea vs Agricola Borcea — Liga III - Serie 3 2020

Progresul Fundulea
Progresul Fundulea
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Agricola Borcea
Agricola Borcea
9/24/2025Liga III - Serie 3Liga III - Serie 3 · Group 3 - 5Stadionul Orășenesc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Progresul Fundulea49%
×Draw23%
Agricola Borcea28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Progresul Fundulea
1.87
Agricola Borcea
1.36

Progresul Fundulea creates 38% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 62 away

creates per match

Progresul Fundulea
1.57
Agricola Borcea
1.66

allows per match

Progresul Fundulea
1.07
Agricola Borcea
2.16

finishing

Progresul Fundulea+0.00on par
Agricola Borcea+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Progresul Fundulea ↓

Agricola Borcea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Progresul Fundulea or draw
72%
Progresul Fundulea or Agricola Borcea
77%
Draw or Agricola Borcea
51%

Winning margin

Progresul Fundulea wins by 2+
28%
Agricola Borcea wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Progresul Fundulea 1+ goals
85%
Progresul Fundulea 2+ goals
56%
Progresul Fundulea 3+ goals
29%
Agricola Borcea 1+ goals
74%
Agricola Borcea 2+ goals
39%
Agricola Borcea 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Progresul Fundulea (draw refunded)
64%
Agricola Borcea (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Progresul Fundulea at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.07 · 42 matches

Agricola Borcea away — creates 1.66, concedes 2.16 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Progresul Fundulea attack 1.57 + Agricola Borcea defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.87

Agricola Borcea attack 1.66 + Progresul Fundulea defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Progresul Fundulea scores more
49%
level
23%
Agricola Borcea scores more
28%

Progresul Fundulea at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Progresul Fundulea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga III - Serie 3: Progresul Fundulea 1–2 Agricola Borcea

Agricola Borcea beat Progresul Fundulea 2-1 in Liga III - Serie 3 on September 24, 2025.

The match was played at Stadionul Orășenesc in Fundulea.