Agricola Borcea 2–1 Progresul Fundulea

Agricola Borcea

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Progresul Fundulea

12/6/2025

Liga III - Serie 3 · Group 3 - 16Stadionul Comunal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Agricola Borcea51%

×Draw22%

Progresul Fundulea27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Agricola BorceaExpected goals in this matchProgresul Fundulea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.33

Agricola Borcea

1.90

Progresul Fundulea

1.33

Agricola Borcea creates 43% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 42 away

2.08

creates per match

1.31

1.36

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Agricola Borcea

2.08

Progresul Fundulea

1.31

allows per match

Agricola Borcea

1.36

Progresul Fundulea

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Agricola Borcea+0.00on par

Progresul Fundulea+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Agricola Borcea ↓

Progresul Fundulea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Agricola Borcea or draw

73%

Agricola Borcea or Progresul Fundulea

78%

Draw or Progresul Fundulea

49%

Winning margin

Agricola Borcea wins by 2+

29%

Progresul Fundulea wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Agricola Borcea 1+ goals

85%

Agricola Borcea 2+ goals

56%

Agricola Borcea 3+ goals

29%

Progresul Fundulea 1+ goals

74%

Progresul Fundulea 2+ goals

38%

Progresul Fundulea 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Agricola Borcea (draw refunded)

65%

Progresul Fundulea (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Agricola Borcea at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.36 · 61 matches

Progresul Fundulea away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.71 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Agricola Borcea attack 2.08 + Progresul Fundulea defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.90

Progresul Fundulea attack 1.31 + Agricola Borcea defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Agricola Borcea scores more

51%

level

22%

Progresul Fundulea scores more

27%

Agricola Borcea at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Agricola Borcea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff