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Progresso vs Petro de Luanda — Girabola 2019

Progresso
Progresso
FT
0 – 4
Petro de Luanda
Petro de Luanda
11/28/2021GirabolaGirabola · Round 9Estádio Municipal dos Coqueiros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Progresso21%
×Draw26%
Petro de Luanda53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Progresso
0.82
Petro de Luanda
1.50

Petro de Luanda creates 83% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 104 away

creates per match

Progresso
1.05
Petro de Luanda
1.81

allows per match

Progresso
1.19
Petro de Luanda
0.59

finishing

Progresso+0.00on par
Petro de Luanda+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Progresso ↓

Petro de Luanda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–115%
0–211%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Progresso or draw
47%
Progresso or Petro de Luanda
74%
Draw or Petro de Luanda
79%

Winning margin

Progresso wins by 2+
6%
Petro de Luanda wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Progresso 1+ goals
56%
Progresso 2+ goals
20%
Progresso 3+ goals
5%
Petro de Luanda 1+ goals
78%
Petro de Luanda 2+ goals
44%
Petro de Luanda 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Progresso (draw refunded)
28%
Petro de Luanda (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Progresso at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.19 · 42 matches

Petro de Luanda away — creates 1.81, concedes 0.59 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Progresso attack 1.05 + Petro de Luanda defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.82

Petro de Luanda attack 1.81 + Progresso defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Progresso scores more
21%
level
26%
Petro de Luanda scores more
53%

Petro de Luanda at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Petro de Luanda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Progresso vs Petro de Luanda

Petro de Luanda beat Progresso 4-0 in Girabola on November 28, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal dos Coqueiros in Luanda.