Progresso 1–1 Petro de Luanda: Result & Stats

Progresso

FT

1 – 1

Petro de Luanda

2/26/2020

Girabola · Round 17Estádio Municipal dos Coqueiros (Luanda)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Progresso15%

×Draw24%

Petro de Luanda62%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ProgressoExpected goals in this matchPetro de Luanda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.67

1.68

Progresso

0.67

Petro de Luanda

1.68

Petro de Luanda creates 151% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 26 away

0.75

creates per match

1.73

1.63

allows per match

0.58

creates per match

Progresso

0.75

Petro de Luanda

1.73

allows per match

Progresso

1.63

Petro de Luanda

0.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Progresso+0.00on par

Petro de Luanda+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Progresso ↓

Petro de Luanda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–116%

0–213%

0–38%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–23%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Progresso or draw

38%

Progresso or Petro de Luanda

76%

Draw or Petro de Luanda

85%

Winning margin

Progresso wins by 2+

4%

Petro de Luanda wins by 2+

35%

Team goals

Progresso 1+ goals

49%

Progresso 2+ goals

15%

Progresso 3+ goals

3%

Petro de Luanda 1+ goals

81%

Petro de Luanda 2+ goals

50%

Petro de Luanda 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Progresso (draw refunded)

19%

Petro de Luanda (draw refunded)

81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Progresso at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

Petro de Luanda away — creates 1.73, concedes 0.58 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Progresso attack 0.75 + Petro de Luanda defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.67

Petro de Luanda attack 1.73 + Progresso defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Progresso scores more

15%

level

24%

Petro de Luanda scores more

62%

Petro de Luanda at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Petro de Luanda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff