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Progresso vs Ferroviário do Huambo — Girabola 2019

Progresso
Progresso
FT
0 – 1
Ferroviário do Huambo
Ferroviário do Huambo
10/26/2019GirabolaGirabola · Round 10Estádio 11 de Novembro (Luanda)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Progresso53%
×Draw27%
Ferroviário do Huambo20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Progresso
1.47
Ferroviário do Huambo
0.80

Progresso creates 84% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 27 away

creates per match

Progresso
1.05
Ferroviário do Huambo
0.41

allows per match

Progresso
1.19
Ferroviário do Huambo
1.89

finishing

Progresso+0.00on par
Ferroviário do Huambo+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Progresso ↓

Ferroviário do Huambo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Progresso or draw
80%
Progresso or Ferroviário do Huambo
73%
Draw or Ferroviário do Huambo
47%

Winning margin

Progresso wins by 2+
27%
Ferroviário do Huambo wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Progresso 1+ goals
77%
Progresso 2+ goals
43%
Progresso 3+ goals
18%
Ferroviário do Huambo 1+ goals
55%
Ferroviário do Huambo 2+ goals
19%
Ferroviário do Huambo 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Progresso (draw refunded)
72%
Ferroviário do Huambo (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Progresso at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.19 · 42 matches

Ferroviário do Huambo away — creates 0.41, concedes 1.89 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Progresso attack 1.05 + Ferroviário do Huambo defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.47

Ferroviário do Huambo attack 0.41 + Progresso defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Progresso scores more
53%
level
27%
Ferroviário do Huambo scores more
20%

Progresso at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Progresso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Girabola: Progresso 0–1 Ferroviário do Huambo

Ferroviário do Huambo beat Progresso 1-0 in Girabola on October 26, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio 11 de Novembro (Luanda).