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Ferroviário do Huambo vs Progresso — Girabola 2019

Ferroviário do Huambo
Ferroviário do Huambo
FT
0 – 3
Progresso
Progresso
2/17/2021GirabolaGirabola · Round 11Estádio dos Kuricutelas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Ferroviário do Huambo37%
×Draw29%
Progresso34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ferroviário do Huambo
1.14
Progresso
1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 45 away

creates per match

Ferroviário do Huambo
0.38
Progresso
0.51

allows per match

Ferroviário do Huambo
1.65
Progresso
1.89

finishing

Ferroviário do Huambo+0.00on par
Progresso+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ferroviário do Huambo ↓

Progresso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Ferroviário do Huambo or draw
66%
Ferroviário do Huambo or Progresso
71%
Draw or Progresso
63%

Winning margin

Ferroviário do Huambo wins by 2+
15%
Progresso wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Ferroviário do Huambo 1+ goals
68%
Ferroviário do Huambo 2+ goals
32%
Ferroviário do Huambo 3+ goals
11%
Progresso 1+ goals
66%
Progresso 2+ goals
29%
Progresso 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Ferroviário do Huambo (draw refunded)
52%
Progresso (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ferroviário do Huambo at home — creates 0.38, concedes 1.65 · 26 matches

Progresso away — creates 0.51, concedes 1.89 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ferroviário do Huambo attack 0.38 + Progresso defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.14

Progresso attack 0.51 + Ferroviário do Huambo defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Ferroviário do Huambo scores more
37%
level
29%
Progresso scores more
34%

Ferroviário do Huambo at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Ferroviário do Huambo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ferroviário do Huambo vs Progresso

Progresso beat Ferroviário do Huambo 3-0 in Girabola on February 17, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio dos Kuricutelas in Huambo.