Progresso 1–2 Cuando Cubango: Result & Stats

Progresso

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Cuando Cubango

12/11/2021

Girabola · Round 11Estádio Municipal dos Coqueiros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Progresso43%

×Draw28%

Cuando Cubango29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ProgressoExpected goals in this matchCuando Cubango

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.99

Progresso

1.27

Cuando Cubango

0.99

Progresso creates 28% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 50 away

1.05

creates per match

0.80

1.19

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Progresso

1.05

Cuando Cubango

0.80

allows per match

Progresso

1.19

Cuando Cubango

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Progresso+0.00on par

Cuando Cubango+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Progresso ↓

Cuando Cubango →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Progresso or draw

71%

Progresso or Cuando Cubango

72%

Draw or Cuando Cubango

57%

Winning margin

Progresso wins by 2+

19%

Cuando Cubango wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Progresso 1+ goals

72%

Progresso 2+ goals

36%

Progresso 3+ goals

14%

Cuando Cubango 1+ goals

63%

Cuando Cubango 2+ goals

26%

Cuando Cubango 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Progresso (draw refunded)

60%

Cuando Cubango (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Progresso at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.19 · 42 matches

Cuando Cubango away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.50 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Progresso attack 1.05 + Cuando Cubango defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.27

Cuando Cubango attack 0.80 + Progresso defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Progresso scores more

43%

level

28%

Cuando Cubango scores more

29%

Progresso at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Progresso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff