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Cuando Cubango vs Progresso — Girabola 2019

Cuando Cubango
Cuando Cubango
FT
2 – 1
Progresso
Progresso
4/17/2022GirabolaGirabola · Round 26Estádio Municipal dos Eucaliptos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Cuando Cubango54%
×Draw28%
Progresso18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cuando Cubango
1.35
Progresso
0.64

Cuando Cubango creates 111% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 45 away

creates per match

Cuando Cubango
0.82
Progresso
0.51

allows per match

Cuando Cubango
0.76
Progresso
1.89

finishing

Cuando Cubango+0.00on par
Progresso+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cuando Cubango ↓

Progresso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Cuando Cubango or draw
82%
Cuando Cubango or Progresso
72%
Draw or Progresso
46%

Winning margin

Cuando Cubango wins by 2+
26%
Progresso wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Cuando Cubango 1+ goals
74%
Cuando Cubango 2+ goals
39%
Cuando Cubango 3+ goals
15%
Progresso 1+ goals
47%
Progresso 2+ goals
14%
Progresso 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Cuando Cubango (draw refunded)
75%
Progresso (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cuando Cubango at home — creates 0.82, concedes 0.76 · 51 matches

Progresso away — creates 0.51, concedes 1.89 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cuando Cubango attack 0.82 + Progresso defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.35

Progresso attack 0.51 + Cuando Cubango defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Cuando Cubango scores more
54%
level
28%
Progresso scores more
18%

Cuando Cubango at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Cuando Cubango will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cuando Cubango vs Progresso

Cuando Cubango beat Progresso 2-1 in Girabola on April 17, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal dos Eucaliptos in Kuito.