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Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer vs JS Kairouanaise — Ligue 2 2020

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
JS Kairouanaise
JS Kairouanaise
W. Jerbi 81'
10/26/2024Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 2Stade Municipal Sakiet Eddaier

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer60%
×Draw25%
JS Kairouanaise14%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
1.56
JS Kairouanaise
0.61

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer creates 156% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 45 away

creates per match

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
2.12
JS Kairouanaise
0.87

allows per match

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
0.35
JS Kairouanaise
1.00

finishing

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer+0.00on par
JS Kairouanaise+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer ↓

JS Kairouanaise →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer or draw
86%
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer or JS Kairouanaise
75%
Draw or JS Kairouanaise
40%

Winning margin

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer wins by 2+
33%
JS Kairouanaise wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 1+ goals
79%
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 2+ goals
46%
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 3+ goals
21%
JS Kairouanaise 1+ goals
46%
JS Kairouanaise 2+ goals
13%
JS Kairouanaise 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer (draw refunded)
81%
JS Kairouanaise (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer at home — creates 2.12, concedes 0.35 · 26 matches

JS Kairouanaise away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.00 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer attack 2.12 + JS Kairouanaise defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.56

JS Kairouanaise attack 0.87 + Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer defence 0.35 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer scores more
60%
level
25%
JS Kairouanaise scores more
14%

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

81'
W. Jerbi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer vs JS Kairouanaise

JS Kairouanaise beat Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 1-0 in Ligue 2 on October 26, 2024.

Goals: W. Jerbi (81').

The match was played at Stade Municipal Sakiet Eddaier in Sakiet Eddaïer.