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JS Kairouanaise vs Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer — Ligue 2 2020

JS Kairouanaise
JS Kairouanaise
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
W. Jerbi 88', 48'
I. Troudi 10' (pen)
A. Attia 47' (pen)
2/15/2025Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 15Stade Hamda Laouani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

JS Kairouanaise45%
×Draw28%
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer27%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JS Kairouanaise
1.30
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
0.93

JS Kairouanaise creates 40% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 27 away

creates per match

JS Kairouanaise
1.42
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
1.26

allows per match

JS Kairouanaise
0.60
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
1.19

finishing

JS Kairouanaise+0.00on par
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JS Kairouanaise ↓

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

JS Kairouanaise or draw
73%
JS Kairouanaise or Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
72%
Draw or Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
55%

Winning margin

JS Kairouanaise wins by 2+
21%
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

JS Kairouanaise 1+ goals
73%
JS Kairouanaise 2+ goals
37%
JS Kairouanaise 3+ goals
14%
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 1+ goals
61%
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 2+ goals
24%
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

JS Kairouanaise (draw refunded)
63%
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JS Kairouanaise at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.60 · 43 matches

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.19 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JS Kairouanaise attack 1.42 + Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.30

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer attack 1.26 + JS Kairouanaise defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

JS Kairouanaise scores more
45%
level
28%
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer scores more
27%

JS Kairouanaise at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "JS Kairouanaise will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
I. TroudiPenalty
47'
A. AttiaPenalty
48'
W. Jerbi
88'
W. Jerbi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: JS Kairouanaise vs Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer

JS Kairouanaise beat Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 3-1 in Ligue 2 on February 15, 2025.

Goals: I. Troudi (10' pen), A. Attia (47' pen), W. Jerbi (48', 88').

The match was played at Stade Hamda Laouani in Kairouan.