Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 1–1 Jendouba Sport

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Jendouba Sport

1/24/2026

Ligue 2 · Round 15

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer62%

×Draw24%

Jendouba Sport14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Progrès Sakiet EddaïerExpected goals in this matchJendouba Sport

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

0.60

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer

1.61

Jendouba Sport

0.60

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer creates 168% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 59 away

2.12

creates per match

0.86

0.35

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer

2.12

Jendouba Sport

0.86

allows per match

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer

0.35

Jendouba Sport

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer+0.00on par

Jendouba Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer ↓

Jendouba Sport →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer or draw

86%

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer or Jendouba Sport

76%

Draw or Jendouba Sport

38%

Winning margin

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer wins by 2+

34%

Jendouba Sport wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 1+ goals

80%

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 2+ goals

48%

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 3+ goals

22%

Jendouba Sport 1+ goals

45%

Jendouba Sport 2+ goals

12%

Jendouba Sport 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer (draw refunded)

82%

Jendouba Sport (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer at home — creates 2.12, concedes 0.35 · 26 matches

Jendouba Sport away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.10 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer attack 2.12 + Jendouba Sport defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.61

Jendouba Sport attack 0.86 + Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer defence 0.35 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer scores more

62%

level

24%

Jendouba Sport scores more

14%

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff