Jendouba Sport 2–2 Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer

Jendouba Sport

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer

9/28/2025

Ligue 2 · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Jendouba Sport46%

×Draw28%

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jendouba SportExpected goals in this matchProgrès Sakiet Eddaïer

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

0.92

Jendouba Sport

1.34

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer

0.92

Jendouba Sport creates 46% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 27 away

1.50

creates per match

1.26

0.58

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Jendouba Sport

1.50

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer

1.26

allows per match

Jendouba Sport

0.58

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jendouba Sport+0.00on par

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jendouba Sport ↓

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Jendouba Sport or draw

74%

Jendouba Sport or Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer

72%

Draw or Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer

54%

Winning margin

Jendouba Sport wins by 2+

22%

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Jendouba Sport 1+ goals

74%

Jendouba Sport 2+ goals

39%

Jendouba Sport 3+ goals

15%

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 1+ goals

60%

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 2+ goals

23%

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Jendouba Sport (draw refunded)

64%

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jendouba Sport at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.58 · 60 matches

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.19 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jendouba Sport attack 1.50 + Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.34

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer attack 1.26 + Jendouba Sport defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Jendouba Sport scores more

46%

level

28%

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer scores more

26%

Jendouba Sport at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Jendouba Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff