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Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer vs EO Sidi Bouzid — Ligue 2 2020

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
EO Sidi Bouzid
EO Sidi Bouzid
11/9/2024Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 4Stade Municipal Sakiet Eddaier

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer69%
×Draw21%
EO Sidi Bouzid10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
1.89
EO Sidi Bouzid
0.56

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer creates 237% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 49 away

creates per match

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
2.12
EO Sidi Bouzid
0.78

allows per match

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
0.35
EO Sidi Bouzid
1.65

finishing

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer+0.00on par
EO Sidi Bouzid+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer ↓

EO Sidi Bouzid →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–19%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer or draw
90%
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer or EO Sidi Bouzid
79%
Draw or EO Sidi Bouzid
31%

Winning margin

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer wins by 2+
43%
EO Sidi Bouzid wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 1+ goals
85%
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 2+ goals
56%
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 3+ goals
29%
EO Sidi Bouzid 1+ goals
43%
EO Sidi Bouzid 2+ goals
11%
EO Sidi Bouzid 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer (draw refunded)
87%
EO Sidi Bouzid (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer at home — creates 2.12, concedes 0.35 · 26 matches

EO Sidi Bouzid away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.65 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer attack 2.12 + EO Sidi Bouzid defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.89

EO Sidi Bouzid attack 0.78 + Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer defence 0.35 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer scores more
69%
level
21%
EO Sidi Bouzid scores more
10%

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer vs EO Sidi Bouzid

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer and EO Sidi Bouzid drew 1-1 in Ligue 2 on November 9, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Municipal Sakiet Eddaier in Sakiet Eddaïer.