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EO Sidi Bouzid vs Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer — Ligue 2 2020

EO Sidi Bouzid
EO Sidi Bouzid
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
10/12/2025Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

EO Sidi Bouzid38%
×Draw28%
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

EO Sidi Bouzid
1.21
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
1.12

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 50 home / 27 away

creates per match

EO Sidi Bouzid
1.24
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
1.26

allows per match

EO Sidi Bouzid
0.98
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
1.19

finishing

EO Sidi Bouzid+0.00on par
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EO Sidi Bouzid ↓

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

EO Sidi Bouzid or draw
66%
EO Sidi Bouzid or Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
72%
Draw or Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
62%

Winning margin

EO Sidi Bouzid wins by 2+
16%
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

EO Sidi Bouzid 1+ goals
70%
EO Sidi Bouzid 2+ goals
34%
EO Sidi Bouzid 3+ goals
12%
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 1+ goals
67%
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 2+ goals
31%
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

EO Sidi Bouzid (draw refunded)
53%
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

EO Sidi Bouzid at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.98 · 50 matches

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.19 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

EO Sidi Bouzid attack 1.24 + Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.21

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer attack 1.26 + EO Sidi Bouzid defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

EO Sidi Bouzid scores more
38%
level
28%
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer scores more
34%

EO Sidi Bouzid at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "EO Sidi Bouzid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: EO Sidi Bouzid 1–1 Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer

EO Sidi Bouzid and Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer drew 1-1 in Ligue 2 on October 12, 2025.