Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 3–0 EGS Gafsa

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

EGS Gafsa

2/27/2026

Ligue 2 · Round 19

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer64%

×Draw23%

EGS Gafsa13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Progrès Sakiet EddaïerExpected goals in this matchEGS Gafsa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

0.62

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer

1.70

EGS Gafsa

0.62

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer creates 174% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 36 away

2.12

creates per match

0.89

0.35

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer

2.12

EGS Gafsa

0.89

allows per match

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer

0.35

EGS Gafsa

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer+0.00on par

EGS Gafsa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer ↓

EGS Gafsa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer or draw

87%

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer or EGS Gafsa

77%

Draw or EGS Gafsa

36%

Winning margin

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer wins by 2+

36%

EGS Gafsa wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 1+ goals

82%

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 2+ goals

51%

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 3+ goals

24%

EGS Gafsa 1+ goals

46%

EGS Gafsa 2+ goals

13%

EGS Gafsa 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer (draw refunded)

83%

EGS Gafsa (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer at home — creates 2.12, concedes 0.35 · 26 matches

EGS Gafsa away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.28 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer attack 2.12 + EGS Gafsa defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.70

EGS Gafsa attack 0.89 + Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer defence 0.35 → ÷2 → 0.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer scores more

64%

level

23%

EGS Gafsa scores more

13%

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff