EGS Gafsa 1–2 Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer

EGS Gafsa

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer

10/26/2025

Ligue 2 · Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

EGS Gafsa49%

×Draw27%

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EGS GafsaExpected goals in this matchProgrès Sakiet Eddaïer

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

0.91

EGS Gafsa

1.41

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer

0.91

EGS Gafsa creates 55% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 27 away

1.63

creates per match

1.26

0.55

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

EGS Gafsa

1.63

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer

1.26

allows per match

EGS Gafsa

0.55

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

EGS Gafsa+0.00on par

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EGS Gafsa ↓

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

EGS Gafsa or draw

76%

EGS Gafsa or Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer

73%

Draw or Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer

51%

Winning margin

EGS Gafsa wins by 2+

24%

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

EGS Gafsa 1+ goals

76%

EGS Gafsa 2+ goals

41%

EGS Gafsa 3+ goals

17%

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 1+ goals

60%

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 2+ goals

23%

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

EGS Gafsa (draw refunded)

67%

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

EGS Gafsa at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.55 · 38 matches

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.19 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

EGS Gafsa attack 1.63 + Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.41

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer attack 1.26 + EGS Gafsa defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

EGS Gafsa scores more

49%

level

27%

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer scores more

24%

EGS Gafsa at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "EGS Gafsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff