Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 2–1 CS Chebba

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

CS Chebba

3/8/2025

Ligue 2 · Round 18Stade Municipal Sakiet Eddaier

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer70%

×Draw20%

CS Chebba10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Progrès Sakiet EddaïerExpected goals in this matchCS Chebba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

0.53

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer

1.90

CS Chebba

0.53

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer creates 258% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 38 away

2.12

creates per match

0.71

0.35

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer

2.12

CS Chebba

0.71

allows per match

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer

0.35

CS Chebba

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer+0.00on par

CS Chebba+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer ↓

CS Chebba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–15%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–19%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer or draw

90%

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer or CS Chebba

80%

Draw or CS Chebba

30%

Winning margin

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer wins by 2+

43%

CS Chebba wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 1+ goals

85%

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 2+ goals

56%

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 3+ goals

29%

CS Chebba 1+ goals

41%

CS Chebba 2+ goals

10%

CS Chebba 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer (draw refunded)

88%

CS Chebba (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer at home — creates 2.12, concedes 0.35 · 26 matches

CS Chebba away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.68 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer attack 2.12 + CS Chebba defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.90

CS Chebba attack 0.71 + Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer defence 0.35 → ÷2 → 0.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer scores more

70%

level

20%

CS Chebba scores more

10%

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff