CS Chebba 1–0 Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer

CS Chebba

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer

11/16/2024

Ligue 2 · Round 5Stade Municipal De La Chebba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

CS Chebba43%

×Draw28%

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CS ChebbaExpected goals in this matchProgrès Sakiet Eddaïer

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.98

CS Chebba

1.27

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer

0.98

CS Chebba creates 30% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 27 away

1.34

creates per match

1.26

0.71

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

CS Chebba

1.34

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer

1.26

allows per match

CS Chebba

0.71

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CS Chebba+0.00on par

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Chebba ↓

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

CS Chebba or draw

71%

CS Chebba or Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer

72%

Draw or Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer

57%

Winning margin

CS Chebba wins by 2+

19%

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

CS Chebba 1+ goals

72%

CS Chebba 2+ goals

36%

CS Chebba 3+ goals

14%

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 1+ goals

62%

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 2+ goals

26%

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

CS Chebba (draw refunded)

60%

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Chebba at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.71 · 38 matches

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.19 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Chebba attack 1.34 + Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.27

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer attack 1.26 + CS Chebba defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

CS Chebba scores more

43%

level

28%

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer scores more

29%

CS Chebba at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "CS Chebba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff