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Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer vs AS Agareb — Ligue 2 2020

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
AS Agareb
AS Agareb
5/10/2025Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 24Stade Municipal Sakiet Eddaier

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer71%
×Draw21%
AS Agareb9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
1.83
AS Agareb
0.46

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer creates 298% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 26 away

creates per match

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
2.12
AS Agareb
0.58

allows per match

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
0.35
AS Agareb
1.54

finishing

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer+0.00on par
AS Agareb+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer ↓

AS Agareb →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–017%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer or draw
91%
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer or AS Agareb
79%
Draw or AS Agareb
29%

Winning margin

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer wins by 2+
43%
AS Agareb wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 1+ goals
84%
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 2+ goals
54%
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 3+ goals
28%
AS Agareb 1+ goals
37%
AS Agareb 2+ goals
8%
AS Agareb 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer (draw refunded)
89%
AS Agareb (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer at home — creates 2.12, concedes 0.35 · 26 matches

AS Agareb away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.54 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer attack 2.12 + AS Agareb defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.83

AS Agareb attack 0.58 + Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer defence 0.35 → ÷2 → 0.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer scores more
71%
level
21%
AS Agareb scores more
9%

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 3–1 AS Agareb

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer beat AS Agareb 3-1 in Ligue 2 on May 10, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Municipal Sakiet Eddaier in Sakiet Eddaïer.