AS Agareb 0–0 Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer

AS Agareb

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer

12/25/2024

Ligue 2 · Round 11Stade Agareb

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

AS Agareb36%

×Draw28%

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AS AgarebExpected goals in this matchProgrès Sakiet Eddaïer

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

AS Agareb

1.17

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 27 away

1.15

creates per match

1.26

1.08

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

AS Agareb

1.15

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer

1.26

allows per match

AS Agareb

1.08

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AS Agareb+0.00on par

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Agareb ↓

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

AS Agareb or draw

64%

AS Agareb or Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer

72%

Draw or Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer

64%

Winning margin

AS Agareb wins by 2+

15%

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

AS Agareb 1+ goals

69%

AS Agareb 2+ goals

33%

AS Agareb 3+ goals

11%

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 1+ goals

69%

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 2+ goals

33%

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

AS Agareb (draw refunded)

50%

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Agareb at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.08 · 26 matches

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.19 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Agareb attack 1.15 + Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.17

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer attack 1.26 + AS Agareb defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

AS Agareb scores more

36%

level

28%

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer scores more

36%

AS Agareb at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "AS Agareb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff