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Progres Niederkorn vs Victoria Rosport — Cup 2020

Progres Niederkorn
Progres Niederkorn
Pens
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Victoria Rosport
Victoria Rosportadvanced
5/13/2026CupCup · Semi-finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Progres Niederkorn31%
×Draw26%
Victoria Rosport43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Progres Niederkorn
1.19
Victoria Rosport
1.44

Victoria Rosport creates 21% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 13 away

creates per match

Progres Niederkorn
1.00
Victoria Rosport
2.38

allows per match

Progres Niederkorn
0.50
Victoria Rosport
1.38

finishing

Progres Niederkorn+0.00on par
Victoria Rosport+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Progres Niederkorn ↓

Victoria Rosport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Progres Niederkorn or draw
57%
Progres Niederkorn or Victoria Rosport
74%
Draw or Victoria Rosport
69%

Winning margin

Progres Niederkorn wins by 2+
13%
Victoria Rosport wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Progres Niederkorn 1+ goals
70%
Progres Niederkorn 2+ goals
33%
Progres Niederkorn 3+ goals
12%
Victoria Rosport 1+ goals
76%
Victoria Rosport 2+ goals
42%
Victoria Rosport 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Progres Niederkorn (draw refunded)
42%
Victoria Rosport (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Progres Niederkorn at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Victoria Rosport away — creates 2.38, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Progres Niederkorn attack 1.00 + Victoria Rosport defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.19

Victoria Rosport attack 2.38 + Progres Niederkorn defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Progres Niederkorn scores more
31%
level
26%
Victoria Rosport scores more
43%

Victoria Rosport at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Victoria Rosport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Progres Niederkorn vs Victoria Rosport

Progres Niederkorn and Victoria Rosport drew 2-2 in Cup on May 13, 2026.