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Progres Niederkorn vs Victoria Rosport — National Division 2018

Progres Niederkorn
Progres Niederkorn
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Victoria Rosport
Victoria Rosport
8/25/2024National DivisionNational Division · Round 4Stade Jos Haupert

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Progres Niederkorn56%
×Draw22%
Victoria Rosport22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Progres Niederkorn
2.02
Victoria Rosport
1.20

Progres Niederkorn creates 68% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 112 away

creates per match

Progres Niederkorn
2.12
Victoria Rosport
1.30

allows per match

Progres Niederkorn
1.10
Victoria Rosport
1.93

finishing

Progres Niederkorn+0.00on par
Victoria Rosport+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Progres Niederkorn ↓

Victoria Rosport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Progres Niederkorn or draw
78%
Progres Niederkorn or Victoria Rosport
78%
Draw or Victoria Rosport
44%

Winning margin

Progres Niederkorn wins by 2+
33%
Victoria Rosport wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Progres Niederkorn 1+ goals
87%
Progres Niederkorn 2+ goals
60%
Progres Niederkorn 3+ goals
33%
Victoria Rosport 1+ goals
70%
Victoria Rosport 2+ goals
34%
Victoria Rosport 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Progres Niederkorn (draw refunded)
72%
Victoria Rosport (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Progres Niederkorn at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.10 · 112 matches

Victoria Rosport away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.93 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Progres Niederkorn attack 2.12 + Victoria Rosport defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 2.02

Victoria Rosport attack 1.30 + Progres Niederkorn defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Progres Niederkorn scores more
56%
level
22%
Victoria Rosport scores more
22%

Progres Niederkorn at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Progres Niederkorn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Progres Niederkorn vs Victoria Rosport

Progres Niederkorn beat Victoria Rosport 2-1 in National Division on August 25, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Jos Haupert in Niedercorn.