Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Progres Niederkorn vs Mondercange — National Division 2018

Progres Niederkorn
Progres Niederkorn
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Mondercange
Mondercange
11/5/2023National DivisionNational Division · Round 11Stade Jos Haupert

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Progres Niederkorn64%
×Draw19%
Mondercange17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Progres Niederkorn
2.23
Mondercange
1.06

Progres Niederkorn creates 110% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 45 away

creates per match

Progres Niederkorn
2.12
Mondercange
1.02

allows per match

Progres Niederkorn
1.10
Mondercange
2.33

finishing

Progres Niederkorn+0.00on par
Mondercange+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Progres Niederkorn ↓

Mondercange →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Progres Niederkorn or draw
83%
Progres Niederkorn or Mondercange
81%
Draw or Mondercange
36%

Winning margin

Progres Niederkorn wins by 2+
40%
Mondercange wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Progres Niederkorn 1+ goals
89%
Progres Niederkorn 2+ goals
65%
Progres Niederkorn 3+ goals
38%
Mondercange 1+ goals
65%
Mondercange 2+ goals
29%
Mondercange 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Progres Niederkorn (draw refunded)
79%
Mondercange (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Progres Niederkorn at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.10 · 112 matches

Mondercange away — creates 1.02, concedes 2.33 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Progres Niederkorn attack 2.12 + Mondercange defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.23

Mondercange attack 1.02 + Progres Niederkorn defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Progres Niederkorn scores more
64%
level
19%
Mondercange scores more
17%

Progres Niederkorn at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Progres Niederkorn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

National Division: Progres Niederkorn 1–1 Mondercange

Progres Niederkorn and Mondercange drew 1-1 in National Division on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Jos Haupert in Niedercorn.