Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Mondercange vs Progres Niederkorn — National Division 2018

Mondercange
Mondercange
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Progres Niederkorn
Progres Niederkorn
4/20/2024National DivisionNational Division · Round 25Stade Communal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Mondercange26%
×Draw24%
Progres Niederkorn51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mondercange
1.17
Progres Niederkorn
1.74

Progres Niederkorn creates 49% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 111 away

creates per match

Mondercange
1.09
Progres Niederkorn
1.68

allows per match

Mondercange
1.80
Progres Niederkorn
1.25

finishing

Mondercange+0.00on par
Progres Niederkorn+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mondercange ↓

Progres Niederkorn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Mondercange or draw
49%
Mondercange or Progres Niederkorn
76%
Draw or Progres Niederkorn
74%

Winning margin

Mondercange wins by 2+
10%
Progres Niederkorn wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Mondercange 1+ goals
69%
Mondercange 2+ goals
33%
Mondercange 3+ goals
11%
Progres Niederkorn 1+ goals
82%
Progres Niederkorn 2+ goals
52%
Progres Niederkorn 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Mondercange (draw refunded)
34%
Progres Niederkorn (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mondercange at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.80 · 45 matches

Progres Niederkorn away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.25 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mondercange attack 1.09 + Progres Niederkorn defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.17

Progres Niederkorn attack 1.68 + Mondercange defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Mondercange scores more
26%
level
24%
Progres Niederkorn scores more
51%

Progres Niederkorn at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Progres Niederkorn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

National Division: Mondercange 2–1 Progres Niederkorn

Mondercange beat Progres Niederkorn 2-1 in National Division on April 20, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Communal in Mondercange.