Progres Niederkorn 5–2 Blue Boys Muhlenbach

Progres Niederkorn

FT

5 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Blue Boys Muhlenbach

B. Muratovic 77'

F. Shala 67'

R. Erragui 47' (OG)

K. Tekiela 33'

M. De Almeida 16'

F. Bop 69'

R. Erragui 36'

11/23/2019

National Division · Round 12Stade Jos Haupert (Nidderkuer (Niedercorn))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Progres Niederkorn66%

×Draw18%

Blue Boys Muhlenbach16%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Progres NiederkornExpected goals in this matchBlue Boys Muhlenbach

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.43

1.13

Progres Niederkorn

2.43

Blue Boys Muhlenbach

1.13

Progres Niederkorn creates 115% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 8 away

2.11

creates per match

1.13

1.12

allows per match

2.75

creates per match

Progres Niederkorn

2.11

Blue Boys Muhlenbach

1.13

allows per match

Progres Niederkorn

1.12

Blue Boys Muhlenbach

2.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Progres Niederkorn+0.00on par

Blue Boys Muhlenbach+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Progres Niederkorn ↓

Blue Boys Muhlenbach →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Progres Niederkorn or draw

84%

Progres Niederkorn or Blue Boys Muhlenbach

82%

Draw or Blue Boys Muhlenbach

34%

Winning margin

Progres Niederkorn wins by 2+

43%

Blue Boys Muhlenbach wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Progres Niederkorn 1+ goals

91%

Progres Niederkorn 2+ goals

69%

Progres Niederkorn 3+ goals

43%

Blue Boys Muhlenbach 1+ goals

68%

Blue Boys Muhlenbach 2+ goals

31%

Blue Boys Muhlenbach 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Progres Niederkorn (draw refunded)

80%

Blue Boys Muhlenbach (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Progres Niederkorn at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.12 · 111 matches

Blue Boys Muhlenbach away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.75 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Progres Niederkorn attack 2.11 + Blue Boys Muhlenbach defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.43

Blue Boys Muhlenbach attack 1.13 + Progres Niederkorn defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Progres Niederkorn scores more

66%

level

18%

Blue Boys Muhlenbach scores more

16%

Progres Niederkorn at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Progres Niederkorn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

M. De Almeida

33'

K. Tekiela

36'

R. Erragui

47'

R. ErraguiOwn goal

52'

F. Bop← F. Sabotic

66'

Munir Dragulovcanin← J. Hodzic

67'

F. Shala

69'

F. Bop

70'

T. Laterza← F. Correia Santos

70'

B. Muratovic← K. Tekiela

72'

T. Makonda← M. NDiaye

77'

B. Muratovic

82'

J. Mmaee← M. De Almeida

Progres

Blue

▼

⚽🥅

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Almeida

⚽

▼

Tekiela

Manager: R. Vrabec

70'▲T. Laterza←▼F. Correia Santos

70'▲B. Muratovic←▼K. Tekiela

82'▲J. Mmaee←▼M. De Almeida

Progres Niederkorn substitutes

LaterzaMuratovicMmaee

Manager: F. Buyse

52'▲F. Bop←▼F. Sabotic

66'▲Munir Dragulovcanin←▼J. Hodzic

72'▲T. Makonda←▼M. NDiaye

Blue Boys Muhlenbach substitutes

BopDragulovcaninMakonda

Match Recap: Progres Niederkorn vs Blue Boys Muhlenbach

Progres Niederkorn beat Blue Boys Muhlenbach 5-2 in National Division on November 23, 2019.

Goals: M. De Almeida (16'), K. Tekiela (33'), R. Erragui (36', 47' o.g.), F. Shala (67'), F. Bop (69'), B. Muratovic (77').

The match was played at Stade Jos Haupert (Nidderkuer (Niedercorn)).

Progres Niederkorn vs Blue Boys Muhlenbach — National Division 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Progres Niederkorn vs Blue Boys Muhlenbach