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Blue Boys Muhlenbach vs Progres Niederkorn — National Division 2018

Blue Boys Muhlenbach
Blue Boys Muhlenbach
CANC
00:00
Progres Niederkorn
Progres Niederkorn
5/3/2020National DivisionNational Division · Round 24Stade Mathias Mamer (Luxembourg)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Blue Boys Muhlenbach27%
×Draw23%
Progres Niederkorn50%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blue Boys Muhlenbach
1.23
Progres Niederkorn
1.76

Progres Niederkorn creates 43% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 109 away

creates per match

Blue Boys Muhlenbach
1.22
Progres Niederkorn
1.63

allows per match

Blue Boys Muhlenbach
1.89
Progres Niederkorn
1.24

finishing

Blue Boys Muhlenbach+0.00on par
Progres Niederkorn+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blue Boys Muhlenbach ↓

Progres Niederkorn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Blue Boys Muhlenbach or draw
50%
Blue Boys Muhlenbach or Progres Niederkorn
77%
Draw or Progres Niederkorn
73%

Winning margin

Blue Boys Muhlenbach wins by 2+
11%
Progres Niederkorn wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Blue Boys Muhlenbach 1+ goals
71%
Blue Boys Muhlenbach 2+ goals
35%
Blue Boys Muhlenbach 3+ goals
13%
Progres Niederkorn 1+ goals
83%
Progres Niederkorn 2+ goals
52%
Progres Niederkorn 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Blue Boys Muhlenbach (draw refunded)
35%
Progres Niederkorn (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blue Boys Muhlenbach at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.89 · 9 matches

Progres Niederkorn away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.24 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blue Boys Muhlenbach attack 1.22 + Progres Niederkorn defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.23

Progres Niederkorn attack 1.63 + Blue Boys Muhlenbach defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Blue Boys Muhlenbach scores more
27%
level
23%
Progres Niederkorn scores more
50%

Progres Niederkorn at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Progres Niederkorn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Blue Boys Muhlenbach host Progres Niederkorn

May 3, 2020: Blue Boys Muhlenbach take on Progres Niederkorn in National Division. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Blue Boys Muhlenbach host Progres Niederkorn at Stade Mathias Mamer (Luxembourg).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.