Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Progres Niederkorn vs AS Jeunesse Esch — Cup 2020

Progres Niederkorn
Progres Niederkornadvanced
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
AS Jeunesse Esch
AS Jeunesse Esch
11/7/2025CupCup · Round of 32

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Progres Niederkorn10%
×Draw15%
AS Jeunesse Esch75%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Progres Niederkorn
0.81
AS Jeunesse Esch
2.56

AS Jeunesse Esch creates 216% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

creates per match

Progres Niederkorn
1.00
AS Jeunesse Esch
4.63

allows per match

Progres Niederkorn
0.50
AS Jeunesse Esch
0.63

finishing

Progres Niederkorn+0.00on par
AS Jeunesse Esch+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Progres Niederkorn ↓

AS Jeunesse Esch →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–19%
0–211%
0–310%
0–46%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Progres Niederkorn or draw
25%
Progres Niederkorn or AS Jeunesse Esch
85%
Draw or AS Jeunesse Esch
90%

Winning margin

Progres Niederkorn wins by 2+
3%
AS Jeunesse Esch wins by 2+
53%

Team goals

Progres Niederkorn 1+ goals
56%
Progres Niederkorn 2+ goals
19%
Progres Niederkorn 3+ goals
5%
AS Jeunesse Esch 1+ goals
92%
AS Jeunesse Esch 2+ goals
72%
AS Jeunesse Esch 3+ goals
46%

Draw no bet

Progres Niederkorn (draw refunded)
12%
AS Jeunesse Esch (draw refunded)
88%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Progres Niederkorn at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

AS Jeunesse Esch away — creates 4.63, concedes 0.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Progres Niederkorn attack 1.00 + AS Jeunesse Esch defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.81

AS Jeunesse Esch attack 4.63 + Progres Niederkorn defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 2.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Progres Niederkorn scores more
10%
level
15%
AS Jeunesse Esch scores more
75%

AS Jeunesse Esch at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "AS Jeunesse Esch will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Progres Niederkorn 1–0 AS Jeunesse Esch

Progres Niederkorn beat AS Jeunesse Esch 1-0 in Cup on November 7, 2025.