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AS Jeunesse Esch vs Progres Niederkorn — Cup 2020

AS Jeunesse Esch
AS Jeunesse Esch
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Progres Niederkorn
Progres Niederkornadvanced
J. Burban 87'
K. Corral 14'
J. Schmid 3'
3/12/2025CupCup · Round of 16Stade de la Frontière

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

AS Jeunesse Esch15%
×Draw16%
Progres Niederkorn69%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Jeunesse Esch
1.25
Progres Niederkorn
2.81

Progres Niederkorn creates 125% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 15 away

creates per match

AS Jeunesse Esch
1.50
Progres Niederkorn
4.13

allows per match

AS Jeunesse Esch
1.50
Progres Niederkorn
1.00

finishing

AS Jeunesse Esch+0.00on par
Progres Niederkorn+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Jeunesse Esch ↓

Progres Niederkorn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–27%
0–37%
0–45%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–25%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

AS Jeunesse Esch or draw
31%
AS Jeunesse Esch or Progres Niederkorn
84%
Draw or Progres Niederkorn
85%

Winning margin

AS Jeunesse Esch wins by 2+
6%
Progres Niederkorn wins by 2+
48%

Team goals

AS Jeunesse Esch 1+ goals
71%
AS Jeunesse Esch 2+ goals
36%
AS Jeunesse Esch 3+ goals
13%
Progres Niederkorn 1+ goals
94%
Progres Niederkorn 2+ goals
76%
Progres Niederkorn 3+ goals
52%

Draw no bet

AS Jeunesse Esch (draw refunded)
18%
Progres Niederkorn (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Jeunesse Esch at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Progres Niederkorn away — creates 4.13, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Jeunesse Esch attack 1.50 + Progres Niederkorn defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Progres Niederkorn attack 4.13 + AS Jeunesse Esch defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

AS Jeunesse Esch scores more
15%
level
16%
Progres Niederkorn scores more
69%

Progres Niederkorn at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Progres Niederkorn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
J. Schmid
14'
K. Corral
58'
G. Mabouba
58'
G. Mabouba
87'
J. Burban

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: AS Jeunesse Esch 0–3 Progres Niederkorn

Progres Niederkorn beat AS Jeunesse Esch 3-0 in Cup on March 12, 2025.

Goals: J. Schmid (3'), K. Corral (14'), J. Burban (87').

The match was played at Stade de la Frontière in Esch-sur-Alzette.