Pro Vercelli U19 1–1 FeralpiSalò U19

Pro Vercelli U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

FeralpiSalò U19

1/11/2025

Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group A - 14Stadio Silvio Piola

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Pro Vercelli U1952%

×Draw23%

FeralpiSalò U1925%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pro Vercelli U19Expected goals in this matchFeralpiSalò U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.18

Pro Vercelli U19

1.80

FeralpiSalò U19

1.18

Pro Vercelli U19 creates 53% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 46 away

1.47

creates per match

0.85

1.50

allows per match

2.13

creates per match

Pro Vercelli U19

1.47

FeralpiSalò U19

0.85

allows per match

Pro Vercelli U19

1.50

FeralpiSalò U19

2.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pro Vercelli U19+0.00on par

FeralpiSalò U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pro Vercelli U19 ↓

FeralpiSalò U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Pro Vercelli U19 or draw

75%

Pro Vercelli U19 or FeralpiSalò U19

77%

Draw or FeralpiSalò U19

48%

Winning margin

Pro Vercelli U19 wins by 2+

29%

FeralpiSalò U19 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Pro Vercelli U19 1+ goals

83%

Pro Vercelli U19 2+ goals

54%

Pro Vercelli U19 3+ goals

27%

FeralpiSalò U19 1+ goals

69%

FeralpiSalò U19 2+ goals

33%

FeralpiSalò U19 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Pro Vercelli U19 (draw refunded)

67%

FeralpiSalò U19 (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pro Vercelli U19 at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.50 · 30 matches

FeralpiSalò U19 away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.13 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pro Vercelli U19 attack 1.47 + FeralpiSalò U19 defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.80

FeralpiSalò U19 attack 0.85 + Pro Vercelli U19 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Pro Vercelli U19 scores more

52%

level

23%

FeralpiSalò U19 scores more

25%

Pro Vercelli U19 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Pro Vercelli U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff