FeralpiSalò U19 1–0 Pro Vercelli U19

FeralpiSalò U19

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Pro Vercelli U19

5/10/2025

Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group A - 30Centro Sportivo Mario Rigamonti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

FeralpiSalò U1938%

×Draw25%

Pro Vercelli U1937%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FeralpiSalò U19Expected goals in this matchPro Vercelli U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.42

FeralpiSalò U19

1.46

Pro Vercelli U19

1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 30 away

1.35

creates per match

1.13

1.72

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

FeralpiSalò U19

1.35

Pro Vercelli U19

1.13

allows per match

FeralpiSalò U19

1.72

Pro Vercelli U19

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FeralpiSalò U19+0.00on par

Pro Vercelli U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FeralpiSalò U19 ↓

Pro Vercelli U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

FeralpiSalò U19 or draw

63%

FeralpiSalò U19 or Pro Vercelli U19

75%

Draw or Pro Vercelli U19

62%

Winning margin

FeralpiSalò U19 wins by 2+

18%

Pro Vercelli U19 wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

FeralpiSalò U19 1+ goals

77%

FeralpiSalò U19 2+ goals

43%

FeralpiSalò U19 3+ goals

18%

Pro Vercelli U19 1+ goals

76%

Pro Vercelli U19 2+ goals

41%

Pro Vercelli U19 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

FeralpiSalò U19 (draw refunded)

51%

Pro Vercelli U19 (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FeralpiSalò U19 at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.72 · 46 matches

Pro Vercelli U19 away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.57 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FeralpiSalò U19 attack 1.35 + Pro Vercelli U19 defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.46

Pro Vercelli U19 attack 1.13 + FeralpiSalò U19 defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

FeralpiSalò U19 scores more

38%

level

25%

Pro Vercelli U19 scores more

37%

FeralpiSalò U19 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "FeralpiSalò U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff