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Prison Leopards vs Power Dynamos — Super League 2019

Prison Leopards
Prison Leopards
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Power Dynamos
Power Dynamos
8/30/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 1Godfrey Chitalu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Prison Leopards33%
×Draw33%
Power Dynamos35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Prison Leopards
0.90
Power Dynamos
0.93

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 93 home / 111 away

creates per match

Prison Leopards
1.02
Power Dynamos
1.18

allows per match

Prison Leopards
0.68
Power Dynamos
0.78

finishing

Prison Leopards+0.00on par
Power Dynamos+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Prison Leopards ↓

Power Dynamos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–115%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Prison Leopards or draw
65%
Prison Leopards or Power Dynamos
67%
Draw or Power Dynamos
67%

Winning margin

Prison Leopards wins by 2+
12%
Power Dynamos wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Prison Leopards 1+ goals
59%
Prison Leopards 2+ goals
23%
Prison Leopards 3+ goals
6%
Power Dynamos 1+ goals
61%
Power Dynamos 2+ goals
24%
Power Dynamos 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Prison Leopards (draw refunded)
49%
Power Dynamos (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Prison Leopards at home — creates 1.02, concedes 0.68 · 93 matches

Power Dynamos away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.78 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Prison Leopards attack 1.02 + Power Dynamos defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.90

Power Dynamos attack 1.18 + Prison Leopards defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Prison Leopards scores more
33%
level
33%
Power Dynamos scores more
35%

Power Dynamos at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Power Dynamos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Prison Leopards 0–0 Power Dynamos

Prison Leopards and Power Dynamos drew 0-0 in Super League on August 30, 2023.

The match was played at Godfrey Chitalu Stadium in Kabwe.