Power Dynamos 3–0 Prison Leopards: Result & Stats

Power Dynamos

FT

3 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Prison Leopards

5/14/2023

Super League · Round 33Arthur Davies Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Power Dynamos53%

×Draw28%

Prison Leopards19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Power DynamosExpected goals in this matchPrison Leopards

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

0.70

Power Dynamos

1.39

Prison Leopards

0.70

Power Dynamos creates 99% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 95 away

1.38

creates per match

0.78

0.62

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Power Dynamos

1.38

Prison Leopards

0.78

allows per match

Power Dynamos

0.62

Prison Leopards

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Power Dynamos+0.00on par

Prison Leopards+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Power Dynamos ↓

Prison Leopards →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Power Dynamos or draw

81%

Power Dynamos or Prison Leopards

72%

Draw or Prison Leopards

47%

Winning margin

Power Dynamos wins by 2+

26%

Prison Leopards wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Power Dynamos 1+ goals

75%

Power Dynamos 2+ goals

40%

Power Dynamos 3+ goals

16%

Prison Leopards 1+ goals

50%

Prison Leopards 2+ goals

16%

Prison Leopards 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Power Dynamos (draw refunded)

74%

Prison Leopards (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Power Dynamos at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.62 · 110 matches

Prison Leopards away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.40 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Power Dynamos attack 1.38 + Prison Leopards defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.39

Prison Leopards attack 0.78 + Power Dynamos defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Power Dynamos scores more

53%

level

28%

Prison Leopards scores more

19%

Power Dynamos at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Power Dynamos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff