Prison Leopards 0–1 Nkwazi: Result & Stats

Prison Leopards

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Nkwazi

12/16/2023

Super League · Round 16Godfrey Chitalu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Prison Leopards40%

×Draw33%

Nkwazi27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Prison LeopardsExpected goals in this matchNkwazi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

0.75

Prison Leopards

0.98

Nkwazi

0.75

Prison Leopards creates 31% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 111 away

1.02

creates per match

0.82

0.68

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

Prison Leopards

1.02

Nkwazi

0.82

allows per match

Prison Leopards

0.68

Nkwazi

0.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Prison Leopards+0.00on par

Nkwazi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under75
Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Prison Leopards ↓

Nkwazi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–113%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–16%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

52%48%2.5

25%75%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Prison Leopards or draw

73%

Prison Leopards or Nkwazi

67%

Draw or Nkwazi

60%

Winning margin

Prison Leopards wins by 2+

15%

Nkwazi wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Prison Leopards 1+ goals

62%

Prison Leopards 2+ goals

26%

Prison Leopards 3+ goals

8%

Nkwazi 1+ goals

53%

Nkwazi 2+ goals

17%

Nkwazi 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Prison Leopards (draw refunded)

60%

Nkwazi (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Prison Leopards at home — creates 1.02, concedes 0.68 · 93 matches

Nkwazi away — creates 0.82, concedes 0.93 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Prison Leopards attack 1.02 + Nkwazi defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.98

Nkwazi attack 0.82 + Prison Leopards defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Prison Leopards scores more

40%

level

33%

Nkwazi scores more

27%

Prison Leopards at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Prison Leopards will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff