Nkwazi 0–1 Prison Leopards: Result & Stats

Nkwazi

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Prison Leopards

5/25/2024

Super League · Round 33Edwin Imboela Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Nkwazi43%

×Draw31%

Prison Leopards26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NkwaziExpected goals in this matchPrison Leopards

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

0.80

Nkwazi

1.13

Prison Leopards

0.80

Nkwazi creates 41% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 95 away

0.85

creates per match

0.78

0.82

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Nkwazi

0.85

Prison Leopards

0.78

allows per match

Nkwazi

0.82

Prison Leopards

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nkwazi+0.00on par

Prison Leopards+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nkwazi ↓

Prison Leopards →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Nkwazi or draw

74%

Nkwazi or Prison Leopards

69%

Draw or Prison Leopards

57%

Winning margin

Nkwazi wins by 2+

18%

Prison Leopards wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Nkwazi 1+ goals

68%

Nkwazi 2+ goals

31%

Nkwazi 3+ goals

11%

Prison Leopards 1+ goals

55%

Prison Leopards 2+ goals

19%

Prison Leopards 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Nkwazi (draw refunded)

63%

Prison Leopards (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nkwazi at home — creates 0.85, concedes 0.82 · 110 matches

Prison Leopards away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.40 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nkwazi attack 0.85 + Prison Leopards defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.13

Prison Leopards attack 0.78 + Nkwazi defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Nkwazi scores more

43%

level

31%

Prison Leopards scores more

26%

Nkwazi at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Nkwazi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff