Prison Leopards 0–1 Mufulira Wanderers

Prison Leopards

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Mufulira Wanderers

10/5/2025

Super League · Round 7President Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Prison Leopards48%

×Draw32%

Mufulira Wanderers20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Prison LeopardsExpected goals in this matchMufulira Wanderers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

0.60

Prison Leopards

1.11

Mufulira Wanderers

0.60

Prison Leopards creates 85% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 60 away

1.02

creates per match

0.52

0.68

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Prison Leopards

1.02

Mufulira Wanderers

0.52

allows per match

Prison Leopards

0.68

Mufulira Wanderers

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Prison Leopards+0.00on par

Mufulira Wanderers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under75
Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No70
Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Prison Leopards ↓

Mufulira Wanderers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–111%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

51%49%2.5

25%75%3.5

9%91%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Prison Leopards or draw

80%

Prison Leopards or Mufulira Wanderers

68%

Draw or Mufulira Wanderers

52%

Winning margin

Prison Leopards wins by 2+

20%

Mufulira Wanderers wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Prison Leopards 1+ goals

67%

Prison Leopards 2+ goals

30%

Prison Leopards 3+ goals

10%

Mufulira Wanderers 1+ goals

45%

Mufulira Wanderers 2+ goals

12%

Mufulira Wanderers 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Prison Leopards (draw refunded)

71%

Mufulira Wanderers (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

18%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Prison Leopards at home — creates 1.02, concedes 0.68 · 93 matches

Mufulira Wanderers away — creates 0.52, concedes 1.20 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Prison Leopards attack 1.02 + Mufulira Wanderers defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.11

Mufulira Wanderers attack 0.52 + Prison Leopards defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Prison Leopards scores more

48%

level

32%

Mufulira Wanderers scores more

20%

Prison Leopards at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Prison Leopards will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff