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Mufulira Wanderers vs Prison Leopards — Super League 2019

Mufulira Wanderers
Mufulira Wanderers
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Prison Leopards
Prison Leopards
4/28/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 30Shinde Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Mufulira Wanderers48%
×Draw30%
Prison Leopards23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mufulira Wanderers
1.24
Prison Leopards
0.76

Mufulira Wanderers creates 63% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 95 away

creates per match

Mufulira Wanderers
1.08
Prison Leopards
0.78

allows per match

Mufulira Wanderers
0.73
Prison Leopards
1.40

finishing

Mufulira Wanderers+0.00on par
Prison Leopards+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mufulira Wanderers ↓

Prison Leopards →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Mufulira Wanderers or draw
77%
Mufulira Wanderers or Prison Leopards
70%
Draw or Prison Leopards
52%

Winning margin

Mufulira Wanderers wins by 2+
22%
Prison Leopards wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Mufulira Wanderers 1+ goals
71%
Mufulira Wanderers 2+ goals
35%
Mufulira Wanderers 3+ goals
13%
Prison Leopards 1+ goals
53%
Prison Leopards 2+ goals
18%
Prison Leopards 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Mufulira Wanderers (draw refunded)
68%
Prison Leopards (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mufulira Wanderers at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.73 · 60 matches

Prison Leopards away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.40 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mufulira Wanderers attack 1.08 + Prison Leopards defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.24

Prison Leopards attack 0.78 + Mufulira Wanderers defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Mufulira Wanderers scores more
48%
level
30%
Prison Leopards scores more
23%

Mufulira Wanderers at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Mufulira Wanderers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mufulira Wanderers vs Prison Leopards

Mufulira Wanderers beat Prison Leopards 2-0 in Super League on April 28, 2024.

The match was played at Shinde Stadium in Mufulira.