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Prison Leopards vs Konkola Blades — Super League 2019

Prison Leopards
Prison Leopards
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Konkola Blades
Konkola Blades
6/1/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 34President Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Prison Leopards44%
×Draw33%
Konkola Blades23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Prison Leopards
1.07
Konkola Blades
0.68

Prison Leopards creates 57% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 50 away

creates per match

Prison Leopards
1.02
Konkola Blades
0.68

allows per match

Prison Leopards
0.68
Konkola Blades
1.12

finishing

Prison Leopards+0.00on par
Konkola Blades+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Prison Leopards ↓

Konkola Blades →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
52%48%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Prison Leopards or draw
77%
Prison Leopards or Konkola Blades
67%
Draw or Konkola Blades
56%

Winning margin

Prison Leopards wins by 2+
18%
Konkola Blades wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Prison Leopards 1+ goals
66%
Prison Leopards 2+ goals
29%
Prison Leopards 3+ goals
9%
Konkola Blades 1+ goals
49%
Konkola Blades 2+ goals
15%
Konkola Blades 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Prison Leopards (draw refunded)
66%
Konkola Blades (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Prison Leopards at home — creates 1.02, concedes 0.68 · 93 matches

Konkola Blades away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.12 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Prison Leopards attack 1.02 + Konkola Blades defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.07

Konkola Blades attack 0.68 + Prison Leopards defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Prison Leopards scores more
44%
level
33%
Konkola Blades scores more
23%

Prison Leopards at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Prison Leopards will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Prison Leopards vs Konkola Blades

Konkola Blades beat Prison Leopards 2-1 in Super League on June 1, 2024.

The match was played at President Stadium in Kabwe.