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Konkola Blades vs Prison Leopards — Super League 2019

Konkola Blades
Konkola Blades
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Prison Leopards
Prison Leopards
12/23/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 17Konkola Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Konkola Blades44%
×Draw31%
Prison Leopards25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Konkola Blades
1.14
Prison Leopards
0.79

Konkola Blades creates 44% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 95 away

creates per match

Konkola Blades
0.88
Prison Leopards
0.78

allows per match

Konkola Blades
0.80
Prison Leopards
1.40

finishing

Konkola Blades+0.00on par
Prison Leopards+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Konkola Blades ↓

Prison Leopards →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Konkola Blades or draw
75%
Konkola Blades or Prison Leopards
69%
Draw or Prison Leopards
56%

Winning margin

Konkola Blades wins by 2+
19%
Prison Leopards wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Konkola Blades 1+ goals
68%
Konkola Blades 2+ goals
32%
Konkola Blades 3+ goals
11%
Prison Leopards 1+ goals
55%
Prison Leopards 2+ goals
19%
Prison Leopards 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Konkola Blades (draw refunded)
63%
Prison Leopards (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Konkola Blades at home — creates 0.88, concedes 0.80 · 51 matches

Prison Leopards away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.40 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Konkola Blades attack 0.88 + Prison Leopards defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.14

Prison Leopards attack 0.78 + Konkola Blades defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Konkola Blades scores more
44%
level
31%
Prison Leopards scores more
25%

Konkola Blades at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Konkola Blades will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Konkola Blades vs Prison Leopards

Konkola Blades and Prison Leopards drew 1-1 in Super League on December 23, 2023.

The match was played at Konkola Stadium in Chililabombwe.