Prison Leopards 1–2 Kabwe Warriors: Result & Stats

Prison Leopards

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Kabwe Warriors

9/23/2023

Super League · Round 5Godfrey Chitalu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Prison Leopards38%

×Draw33%

Kabwe Warriors28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Prison LeopardsExpected goals in this matchKabwe Warriors

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.97

0.79

Prison Leopards

0.97

Kabwe Warriors

0.79

Prison Leopards creates 23% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 111 away

1.02

creates per match

0.90

0.68

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Prison Leopards

1.02

Kabwe Warriors

0.90

allows per match

Prison Leopards

0.68

Kabwe Warriors

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Prison Leopards+0.00on par

Kabwe Warriors+0.00on par

Total goals

Under74
Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Prison Leopards ↓

Kabwe Warriors →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–114%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

26%74%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Prison Leopards or draw

72%

Prison Leopards or Kabwe Warriors

67%

Draw or Kabwe Warriors

62%

Winning margin

Prison Leopards wins by 2+

14%

Kabwe Warriors wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Prison Leopards 1+ goals

62%

Prison Leopards 2+ goals

25%

Prison Leopards 3+ goals

7%

Kabwe Warriors 1+ goals

55%

Kabwe Warriors 2+ goals

19%

Kabwe Warriors 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Prison Leopards (draw refunded)

57%

Kabwe Warriors (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Prison Leopards at home — creates 1.02, concedes 0.68 · 93 matches

Kabwe Warriors away — creates 0.90, concedes 0.92 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Prison Leopards attack 1.02 + Kabwe Warriors defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.97

Kabwe Warriors attack 0.90 + Prison Leopards defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Prison Leopards scores more

38%

level

33%

Kabwe Warriors scores more

28%

Prison Leopards at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Prison Leopards will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff