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Kabwe Warriors vs Prison Leopards — Super League 2019

Kabwe Warriors
Kabwe Warriors
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Prison Leopards
Prison Leopards
8/23/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 2Godfrey Chitalu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Kabwe Warriors49%
×Draw29%
Prison Leopards22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kabwe Warriors
1.28
Prison Leopards
0.75

Kabwe Warriors creates 71% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 95 away

creates per match

Kabwe Warriors
1.17
Prison Leopards
0.78

allows per match

Kabwe Warriors
0.72
Prison Leopards
1.40

finishing

Kabwe Warriors+0.00on par
Prison Leopards+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kabwe Warriors ↓

Prison Leopards →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Kabwe Warriors or draw
78%
Kabwe Warriors or Prison Leopards
71%
Draw or Prison Leopards
51%

Winning margin

Kabwe Warriors wins by 2+
23%
Prison Leopards wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Kabwe Warriors 1+ goals
72%
Kabwe Warriors 2+ goals
37%
Kabwe Warriors 3+ goals
14%
Prison Leopards 1+ goals
53%
Prison Leopards 2+ goals
17%
Prison Leopards 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Kabwe Warriors (draw refunded)
69%
Prison Leopards (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kabwe Warriors at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.72 · 111 matches

Prison Leopards away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.40 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kabwe Warriors attack 1.17 + Prison Leopards defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.28

Prison Leopards attack 0.78 + Kabwe Warriors defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Kabwe Warriors scores more
49%
level
29%
Prison Leopards scores more
22%

Kabwe Warriors at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Kabwe Warriors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kabwe Warriors vs Prison Leopards

Kabwe Warriors and Prison Leopards drew 0-0 in Super League on August 23, 2025.

The match was played at Godfrey Chitalu Stadium in Kabwe.