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Prishtina vs Liria Prizren — Superliga 2019

Prishtina
Prishtina
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Liria Prizren
Liria Prizren
9/17/2023SuperligaSuperliga · Round 5Kampi Nacional

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Prishtina63%
×Draw21%
Liria Prizren16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Prishtina
1.99
Liria Prizren
0.88

Prishtina creates 126% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 18 away

creates per match

Prishtina
1.65
Liria Prizren
0.83

allows per match

Prishtina
0.93
Liria Prizren
2.33

finishing

Prishtina+0.00on par
Liria Prizren+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Prishtina ↓

Liria Prizren →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Prishtina or draw
84%
Prishtina or Liria Prizren
79%
Draw or Liria Prizren
37%

Winning margin

Prishtina wins by 2+
38%
Liria Prizren wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Prishtina 1+ goals
86%
Prishtina 2+ goals
59%
Prishtina 3+ goals
32%
Liria Prizren 1+ goals
59%
Liria Prizren 2+ goals
22%
Liria Prizren 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Prishtina (draw refunded)
80%
Liria Prizren (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Prishtina at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.93 · 125 matches

Liria Prizren away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.33 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Prishtina attack 1.65 + Liria Prizren defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.99

Liria Prizren attack 0.83 + Prishtina defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Prishtina scores more
63%
level
21%
Liria Prizren scores more
16%

Prishtina at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Prishtina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Prishtina vs Liria Prizren

Prishtina and Liria Prizren drew 1-1 in Superliga on September 17, 2023.

The match was played at Kampi Nacional in Priština.