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Liria Prizren vs Prishtina — Superliga 2019

Liria Prizren
Liria Prizren
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Prishtina
Prishtina
11/11/2023SuperligaSuperliga · Round 14Stadiumi Përparim Thaçi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Liria Prizren19%
×Draw25%
Prishtina56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Liria Prizren
0.80
Prishtina
1.59

Prishtina creates 99% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 124 away

creates per match

Liria Prizren
0.58
Prishtina
1.19

allows per match

Liria Prizren
2.00
Prishtina
1.03

finishing

Liria Prizren+0.00on par
Prishtina+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liria Prizren ↓

Prishtina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–115%
0–212%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Liria Prizren or draw
44%
Liria Prizren or Prishtina
75%
Draw or Prishtina
81%

Winning margin

Liria Prizren wins by 2+
6%
Prishtina wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Liria Prizren 1+ goals
55%
Liria Prizren 2+ goals
19%
Liria Prizren 3+ goals
5%
Prishtina 1+ goals
80%
Prishtina 2+ goals
47%
Prishtina 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Liria Prizren (draw refunded)
25%
Prishtina (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liria Prizren at home — creates 0.58, concedes 2.00 · 19 matches

Prishtina away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.03 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liria Prizren attack 0.58 + Prishtina defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.80

Prishtina attack 1.19 + Liria Prizren defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Liria Prizren scores more
19%
level
25%
Prishtina scores more
56%

Prishtina at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Prishtina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superliga: Liria Prizren 2–2 Prishtina

Liria Prizren and Prishtina drew 2-2 in Superliga on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Stadiumi Përparim Thaçi in Prizren.