Primorje 1–0 Fužinar: Result & Stats | 2. SNL

Primorje

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Fužinar

M. Gulič 57'

5/5/2024

2. SNL · Round 28Nogometni stadion Ajdovščina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Primorje50%

×Draw23%

Fužinar27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PrimorjeExpected goals in this matchFužinar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.26

Primorje

1.79

Fužinar

1.26

Primorje creates 42% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 64 away

1.75

creates per match

1.36

1.16

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Primorje

1.75

Fužinar

1.36

allows per match

Primorje

1.16

Fužinar

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Primorje+0.00on par

Fužinar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Primorje ↓

Fužinar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Primorje or draw

73%

Primorje or Fužinar

77%

Draw or Fužinar

50%

Winning margin

Primorje wins by 2+

27%

Fužinar wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Primorje 1+ goals

83%

Primorje 2+ goals

53%

Primorje 3+ goals

26%

Fužinar 1+ goals

72%

Fužinar 2+ goals

36%

Fužinar 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Primorje (draw refunded)

65%

Fužinar (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Primorje at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.16 · 56 matches

Fužinar away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.83 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Primorje attack 1.75 + Fužinar defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.79

Fužinar attack 1.36 + Primorje defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Primorje scores more

50%

level

23%

Fužinar scores more

27%

Primorje at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Primorje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

57'

M. Gulič

61'

M. Kotnik← K. Ofič

61'

M. Turičnik← C. Cener

68'

M. Hovnik← K. Irmančnik

70'

E. Suljanović← T. Čandić

70'

V. Vuković← M. Gulič

84'

D. Miljanović← A. Galajs

90+2'

D. Zukić← Gonçalo Agrelos

Primorje

Fužinar

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: M. Anđelković

70'▲E. Suljanović←▼T. Čandić

70'▲V. Vuković←▼M. Gulič

90+2'▲D. Zukić←▼Gonçalo Agrelos

Primorje substitutes

SuljanovićVukovićZukićStanojevićCigojLinussiMavričGrujićFogec

Manager: M. Bukovec

61'▲M. Kotnik←▼K. Ofič

61'▲M. Turičnik←▼C. Cener

68'▲M. Hovnik←▼K. Irmančnik

84'▲D. Miljanović←▼A. Galajs

Fužinar substitutes

KotnikTuričnikHovnikMiljanovićMarčič

2. SNL: Primorje 1–0 Fužinar

Primorje beat Fužinar 1-0 in 2. SNL on May 5, 2024.

Goals: M. Gulič (57').

The match was played at Nogometni stadion Ajdovščina in Ajdovščina.

Primorje vs Fužinar — 2. SNL 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

2. SNL: Primorje 1–0 Fužinar