Fužinar 2–0 Primorje: Result & Stats | 2. SNL

Fužinar

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Primorje

M. Kvesić 90+2'

G. Gaberšek Rotovnik 52'

10/14/2023

2. SNL · Round 13Mestni stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Fužinar39%

×Draw25%

Primorje36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FužinarExpected goals in this matchPrimorje

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.35

Fužinar

1.42

Primorje

1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 56 away

1.62

creates per match

1.13

1.57

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Fužinar

1.62

Primorje

1.13

allows per match

Fužinar

1.57

Primorje

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fužinar+0.00on par

Primorje+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fužinar ↓

Primorje →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Fužinar or draw

64%

Fužinar or Primorje

75%

Draw or Primorje

61%

Winning margin

Fužinar wins by 2+

18%

Primorje wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Fužinar 1+ goals

76%

Fužinar 2+ goals

41%

Fužinar 3+ goals

17%

Primorje 1+ goals

74%

Primorje 2+ goals

39%

Primorje 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Fužinar (draw refunded)

52%

Primorje (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fužinar at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.57 · 68 matches

Primorje away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.21 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fužinar attack 1.62 + Primorje defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.42

Primorje attack 1.13 + Fužinar defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Fužinar scores more

39%

level

25%

Primorje scores more

36%

Fužinar at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Fužinar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

52'

G. Gaberšek Rotovnik

55'

M. Turičnik← D. Adrović

56'

D. Ignjatović← E. Suljanović

56'

M. Gulič← L. Jerin

67'

J. Krevh← K. Irmančnik

80'

80'

80'

90+2'

Fužinar

Primorje

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: M. Bukovec

55'▲M. Turičnik←▼D. Adrović

67'▲J. Krevh←▼K. Irmančnik

80'▲M. Carl←▼R. Morariu

80'▲M. Kvesić←▼D. Ikenna

80'▲N. Krivec←▼M. Bajraj

Fužinar substitutes

TuričnikKrevhCarlKvesićKrivecJahićDeronjaPlace

Manager: M. Anđelković

56'▲D. Ignjatović←▼E. Suljanović

56'▲M. Gulič←▼L. Jerin

Primorje substitutes

IgnjatovićGuličStanojevićNdzenguePetekLinussiMavričZavadlav

2. SNL: Fužinar 2–0 Primorje

Fužinar beat Primorje 2-0 in 2. SNL on October 14, 2023.

Goals: G. Gaberšek Rotovnik (52'), M. Kvesić (90+2').

The match was played at Mestni stadion in Ravne na Koroškem.

Fužinar vs Primorje — 2. SNL 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

2. SNL: Fužinar 2–0 Primorje